AFL Round 18: Four Takes

The 2023 AFL season is reaching the pointy end with 6 games left until September Finals action.

GWS Giants silenced the Adelaide crowd with a landmark victory over the Crows in Round 18 (Credit: Mark Brake / Getty Images)

Round 18 of the 2023 AFL season saw the normal in Collingwood winning at the MCG and both WA sides losing but it also saw the unexpected of Carlton beating Port Adelaide and the Giants beating the Crows at Adelaide Oval. This weekend also had a hint of weirdness as Jeremy Cameron was gifted a bottle of barbecue sauce after his side's victory and Zac Bailey was almost a late out as he bounced the ball into his noggin with an attempted umpires bounce.

From the normal, unexpected and the weird, in this article I have deduced my four takes from Round 18 of the 2023 AFL Season .

Take 1: Brisbane won't be Premiers in 2023

A dejected Brisbane Lions team walk off the MCG as they let a 4 goal lead slip late in Friday's blockbuster (Credit: Getty Images)

The Brisbane Lions have now lost 14 of their last 15 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. For such a strong side over the last 5 years, that record is astounding. Chris Fagan mentioned pre-game he was sick of the questioning surrounding the Lions' MCG record but unfortunately as the Lions boss put eloquently post-game "the hoodoo lives on". It was an unbelievable comeback as the Demons kicked four goals in the last 7 minutes of the game to run home victors by a point. Jake Melksham, who has found himself in and out of the Dees side this year, was instrumental in latter stages of the game, kicking two clutch goals along with a couple contested marks to go with it.

The Lions have absolutely made the term "flat track bullies" their own as they have won 27 of their last 30 games at the Gabba which is a total antithesis to their MCG record. With the Lions outside the top 2, there is a strong chance the side will have to win two or three finals games at the MCG to lift the trophy on the final Saturday of September. Even with a four goal advantage late in the game, the Lions proved an inability to win at the MCG, so with that in mind, I don’t think Brisbane will be premiers in 2023.

Take 2: The Blues and Giants will play Finals

Patrick Cripps celebrates with the Carlton faithful after ending Port Adelaide's win streak (Credit: AFL Photos)

The Blues are back. Carlton have won their last 4 games all by more than 50 points which has given them a chance to play finals for the first time since 2013. The Blues have the bottom of the ladder Eagles this weekend which will provide Vossy's boys another victory and could put them inside the top 8. The Blues have a great team (on paper) and for the first time since early this season, it is finally starting to click. Yes, Port Adelaide were hindered by several injuries but should the Blues sneak a way into the top 8, they will not look out of place. I am predicting the Blues to make the finals after this weekend's victory over previous ladder topping Port Adelaide but I'm not 100% confident in doing so as Carlton typically find ways to let their fans down, and underperforming in their remaining games would do just that…

The Giants win at Adelaide Oval should be remembered by their players as one of the best of their career. With more players than fans at Adelaide Oval on Saturday against a side who had only lost 2 games at home all year, the win by Adam Kingsley's men was elite. The Giants are on a 5-match win streak and have put themselves in the fold for a place in the top 8. No one has ever doubted the talent of the current GWS list but with Adam Kingsley at the helm, it feels like he is maximising his players' potential and building a really strong identity. With a relatively tough run home, the Giants remain outsiders to play finals but with the way they have beaten Melbourne and Adelaide in recent weeks, I am predicting them to sneak into the top 8.

Take 3: A loss that Port needed

Heads down Port Adelaide leave Marvel Stadium as a losing side for the first time in 15 weeks (Credit: James Ross/AAP Photos)

As we see so often in sports history, a loss can actually be beneficial in the long term for a team or individual. It applies across all sports where a team or person goes on an extended winning streak that ultimately cannot continue forever. The reason being that the side eventually tries to protect their streak in every game and plays the game trying not to lose the match, as opposed to trying to win the match. Although, Port were without some of their key players, their performance on Saturday night lacked a desire to take risks and were playing like a team trying not to lose.

There were flashes of brilliance from Connor Rozee as he has done all season with the midfielder amassing 28 touches along with 2 goals. Port Adelaide and Collingwood have been by far the two most consistent sides in the competition this season and have a mouthwatering clash coming up this weekend. Although Port Adelaide would have liked to win on Saturday night, I think the loss will put them in good stead come finals. Losing Zac Butters to injury should be more concerning to Ken Hinkley as the Brownlow contender will need to be firing in 6 weeks' time as Port attempt to win their first premiership since 2004.

Take 4: Over-promise, underdeliver at the Dockers; Under-promise, overdeliver at the Eagles

Brandon Walker injured his knee in Freo's defeat to the Pies on Saturday (Credit: Joel Carrett / AAPImage)

Fair to say, both WA AFL sides this year have been terrible. The teams have had 1 win between them in the last 5 rounds and have lost by a combined 635 points across these last 5 weeks. The Dockers were expected by many to be contenders come September but have ultimately underperformed across the last month of footy, placing them firmly outside the top 8. The Eagles are now in a strange conundrum where a 38-point loss to a side nowhere near its best is seen as respectable which proved just how long the road back for the Coasters might be.

The Dockers respectably went down to the Pies by 46 points on Saturday at the MCG. If you took out the second quarter where Collingwood kicked 10 goals to 2, the game was even. However this was the Dockers 5th loss in the last 6 weeks and in a season where many expected Justin Longmuir's side to finish in the top 4, the Dockers now have little to no hope of playing a part in September. In 2020, the Dockers released a 5-year strategic plan which had the team winning a premiership alongside three top 4 finishes. With zero chance of making the top 4 this season, they can now firmly put a cross through achieving their strategic plan. The Dockers, unfortunately like they have done throughout their history have once again overpromised and underdelivered.

The Eagles have been so poor in season 2023 that they now receive positive commentary for losing by only 7 goals. Yes, the Eagles have had many issues with injuries this season but, the team had a lot of experience on the park this weekend. The Eagles ultimately overperformed relative to previous weeks where they have lost by an average of 84 points in the last 5 weeks. So losing by 38 points, I guess isnt that bad… Dire times indeed out West. The Tigers were very good in patches led by Dustin Martin and exploited the Eagles inability to stop a run-on early in the third quarter. Adam Simpson will need to find a win somewhere in the remaining games this season if he is to remain the one in charge of leading the Eagles on the long, windy road back to a competitive side.