Germany to Win Euros 2024

The Euros 2024 kicked off in Germany this week with the opening matches going largely as expected including the hosts Germany belting the poor Scots.

German players celebrate victory in their opening round match (Credit: football Germany)

The tournament always seems to produce great stories, moments and unexpected results. The most vivid memory I have of the Euros is Cristiano Ronaldo essentially coaching Portugal to victory from the sidelines in the 2016 final, when he went down with an injury during the final.

After extensive research, podcasting, discussing with European colleagues, cold calling Gareth Southgate and obtaining intelligence from Ollie's Takes correspondents Lachie Simpson and Alex Trimboli who are on the ground in Munchen, please enjoy my takes on the Euros 2024.

Take #1: It's not coming Home

Will the pressure from the good looking England fans be too much? (Credit: NBC)

As the sun emerges in England for its brief annual appearance, it brings with it a sense of hope that this might finally be the year their country wins a major football tournament. "It's coming home" echoes throughout beer gardens from up in Newcastle down to Brighton, along with the chant "Southgate, you're the one, you still turn me on," to the tune of Atomic Kitten's 2000 hit single "Whole Again."

At a time when England is grappling with significant economic and political unrest, making it nearly impossible to get a consensus on any issue, the Euros have provided a glimmer of hope. If participating in the Euros wasn’t tense enough, this year's tournament offers an opportunity for the Three Lions to galvanize the nation. The England players sent to Europe has the chance to bring the country together… no pressure, lads.

The fans believe that this year could be their year, and to be fair, for a nation typically delusional about their country's chances in major tournaments, this year they have a point. The England squad heading to Germany is the best in years, with talent across the pitch.

The Three Lions have plenty of firepower, headlined by Foden, Bellingham, and Kane, and an elite midfield spearheaded by Declan Rice. Plus, how could we not mention the brick wall in goal, Jordan Pickford? While I think their defence is vulnerable with Guehi and Stones, having Trippier and Walker at fullback should help the team hold up well.

So, it all sounds positive, right? The country is behind the team, the star players are in great form, and the team is strong across the pitch. However, it is still not coming home.

Firstly, I must point out that using the term "it's coming home" for a football tournament that excludes six of the seven continents is quite amusing. Secondly, the reason it is not coming home lies in England's history. The team's greatest strength is the intense spotlight placed on the national team by the country, from tabloids to ex-players and the general population. While the support for England is strong, this level of pressure can also be their kryptonite and a key reason why England may not go all the way. Despite having a relatively young squad, I don’t think the team will crumble, and I still expect them to go deep in the tournament. However, I will be very surprised if they go all the way.

I don’t think Kane is a great leader (mainly because he seems like an incredibly boring sod), and I have doubts about how the trio of Bellingham, Kane, and Foden will perform. They are brilliant players individually, but whether they have enough experience playing together to win a major tournament remains uncertain.

Take #2: Allez Les Bleus

Kylian Mbppe is crucial to France's hopes at this years tournament (Credit: Optus Sport)

Le Bleus (yes, I speak fluent French) come into the tournament as equal favourites with England, and gee whiz, I would be a fool to write them off the same way I have done for England. The French are also experiencing some political unrest with snap elections and turmoil surrounding the amount of money spent on the upcoming Olympics. With national pride appearing to be at an all-time low, like England, one thing that can bring the country together is football.

The 2018 World Cup Champions and 2022 World Cup Runners-Up are sending a strong squad to Germany, which we have become accustomed to. France's hopes ultimately rest on how arguably the best player in the world, Mbappe, performs. The guy is so good he could turn it on for a couple of weeks and carry his team to the trophy.

The French squad oozes class but is missing a couple of stars, including Tchouameni (yes, I had to copy-paste that name) and Lucas Hernandez. There is also word of a virus spreading through the squad in the lead-up to the tournament, with Kylian Mbappe and Kingsley Coman sitting out training ahead of their opening match against Austria. A few players such as Olivier Giroud and Ngolo Kante, who could start in the opening match, are now on the older side as well without consistent football at club level. And that’s enough for me to not pick them as my winners of this year's tournament.

Take #3: No back to back for the Italians

Italy enter the tournament as the reigning champions (Credit: Reuters)

Italy opened their Euros defence against Albania and despite conceding in the first 26 seconds, it was a business like performance from the Italians. The Azzurri never really looked like losing, however it wasn’t exactly a performance that will provide too much excitement to the Italians back home.

Winning the Euros in 2021 over England in the final is an extreme outlier in recent times with Italy failing to make either of the 2018 or 2022 World Cups and also lost in the Euros quarter finals in 2016. The country faces stern tests in the remainder of the group stage facing Croatia and Spain. Croatia did not look great in their opening match against Spain so if the Italians can escape their group with one victory in their next two games, strange things can happen in the knockout stages.

The Italians have a few straight ballers in their team such as Chiesa and Barella however, I think there are quite a few stronger teams than the Azzurri at this year's tournament.

Take #4: The other Contenders

Lamine Yamal became the youngest ever player to play at a European Championships (Credit: FIFA)

The other contenders at this year's tournament include Belgium, Spain, the Dutch and Portugal. None of these teams are my pick for the tournament but I expect them to progress to the knockout stages.

Portugal has undergone a rebuild since their last trophy triumph in 2016, with just the experienced duo of Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe still hanging around it what will likely be their final major tournament. The Portuguese under my boy Roberto Martinez, will be tough to beat.

The Portuguese boasted the best defensive record in Euro qualifying, anchored by Ruben Dias and Joao Cancelo, Portugal also possesses a significant firepower. Players like Bernardo Silva, Joao Felix, Diogo Jota, Ruben Neves, and Bruno Fernandes is a pretty scary attack.

Spain enter the Euros on the back of a successful Nations League campaign (does anyone actually care about the Nations League?). One to watch is 21-year-old prodigy, Pedri and I've got to mention Lamine Yamal who became the youngest player to play in a Euros tournament last night at the age of 16. The kid would have had no issues in getting school off for the tournament and he was spotted doing his homework in transit to the tournament. Good kid.

Spain looked impressive in their opening match victory over Croatia, with class from their experienced players like Dani Carvajal, Morata and Rodri. The Spaniards are aiming to win a tournament they have not won since 2012.

Belgium and the Netherlands are also among the favourites this year, though both squads appear pretty diminished compared to their peak years they still have some damaging players in their prime. Croatia in their opening match clearly lacked the flare it had during its 2018 World Cup final run, heavily relying on the aging Luka Modric for creative spark in their attacking play. The Croats are no chance.

Take #5: Germany will be Champions

Germany farewell many of their superstars at this year's tournament (Credit: AS USA)

I am all for a story in sport and I have bought into the home nation winning this year's Euros in the final major tournament for several of its beloved superstars.

The German team is strong, striking a good balance between experience and youth excitement. Although Scotland did not fire much of a shot in their opening match, Germany were impressive and easily accounted for the Scots 5-1. Goals came surprisingly easy which was a key question mark of the side heading into the tournament after producing relatively lacklustre recent performances against Greece and Ukraine in the lead up.

The team famously did not make it out of the group stages in the 2022 world cup but results and performances have improved under new coach Julian Nagelsmann, who is the real deal. Nagelsmann and the Germans had friendly wins over France and the Netherlands in March with the improved (and slightly unreliable) Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz producing the goods. The German defence will be as per usual difficult to get through anchored by Antonio Rudiger.

It will be the final Euros for star players Manuel Neuer, Thomas Muller and Toni Kroos. Players who have been stalwarts for the Germans for so many years, I look forward to watching them in action together for one last time. It almost feels written in the stars that Germany play host for these players major tournament.

Ollie's Takes correspondents Lachie Simpson and Alex Trimboli who have been flown to Germany to report on the tournament attended the German's opening round match in Munich. Here's what they had to say about the match.

Lachie: Ich bin Deutsche

Alex: Take me back to Laos

Lachie and Alex may or may not have been under the influence of German beer when asked for comment.

Anyway, Germany will win the Euros 2024, heard it here first (probably not) and See you shortly for some more takes.

OT